Recession risks are fading, business economists say, but political tensions pose threat to U.S. economy
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Just a quarter of business economists and analysts expect the United States to fall into recession this year. Respondents to a National Association of Business Economics survey expect year-over-year inflation to exceed 2.5% through 2024. The Fed has stopped raising rates and has signaled that it expects to reduce rates three times this year. Concerns include the chances of a conflict between China and Taiwan, conflict in the Middle East driving oil prices above $90 a barrel, political instability in the United States before or after the Nov. 5 presidential election, and the need for more disciplined budget policies.