Exactly. The axe is good for decentralization, but won't have enough power to mine a reward correct?

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The Bitaxe can certainly mine and block and find a reward (they have done so in the past) - but with current difficulty and hashpower...it's unlikely 😎

Having done so in the past, was that one axe one time??

For some yes, others no.

It can be difficult to find accurate data on solo miners (for good reasons), but there are some verified cases of just ONE Bitaxe hitting a block.

See here:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/tiny-500gh-home-bitcoin-mining-device-produced-a-block-earning-over-200k-btc

Hasn't this happened a couple of times in the last year

Yep! But usually with solo mining, a winner's hashrate is much higher.

I thought they just got lucky

Definitely an element of luck involved, but if you deploy 1 Petahash, mine to a solo pool (like CKPool), and are willing to wait a year (especially during the bear market), you tend to be "luckier" than those who aren't putting in the effort!