How rates affect bond prices:

Let's say you have a bond and it's yielding 1%.

Let's say they raise rates and the new bonds being auctioned are yielding 3%.

Now nobody is going to want your 1% yielding bond for the price you paid for it. They'll be willing to pay less for it, because when it matures it will be paid back by the government at face value, so the price difference in effect becomes extra yield, making this boobs yield as much as the new ones in the long run.

Three years ago rates were rock bottom and banks were flush with cash and using it to scoop up bonds. Rates are now over 5% and all of those bonds purchased in 2020 have gone -40% in price.

This isn't one or two banks. This is all the banks. There is a collective unrealized loss in the banking system of over $1 trillion right now.

Let's see what happens next ๐ŸŽฒ

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

In the US, the Fed has created a $200 billion facility to allow banks to pledge as collateral underwater (low rate) bonds for face value, and borrow cash at Fed funds rates. There's about $110 billion lent out under this facility so far.

Note: Only Treasury bills for facility above

Yeah that's for short term T bills. I recall seeing something recently that usage is actually down compared to a couple years ago. But short term treasuries don't move in price very much anyway. The problem is all the long duration bonds. 10Y and 30y bonds on banks' balance sheets.