nostr:npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs what are the odds that the next bull run we don’t even make ot back to the ATH?
“About $230 billion of this debt matures throughout the rest of 2023, $790 billion in 2024, and the meat of the refinancing comes in 2025 when $1.07 trillion matures.
Companies that cannot survive a jump from 2% to 8-10% interest rates will die.
Moody’s conservatively expects defaults to peak at 5.1% by April 2024. Its pessimistic scenario is HY defaults jumping as high as 13.7%—exceeding the level reached during the GFC crash.
Given the history of rating agencies severely underestimating the probability of crisis out of either malice or incompetence, we’d lean toward the latter.”
