I have doubts whether it's even possible for all of Americans to use Bitcoin as their currency. I'm not sure there is the computing power to run that system yet.
Discussion
People will shift from being banked in fiat to being banked in scarcity
What does that mean?
People will just use custodial options (banks) as they do now except with accounts labeled in bitcoin terms. These options can't be fractionally reserved due to the nature of bitcoin and therefore real scarcity will be implemented into the system rather than perpetual lending.
Why would there need to be more computing power?
Full reserve banking is not going to be a thing
https://github.com/libbitcoin/libbitcoin-system/wiki/Full-Reserve-Fallacy
This article claims bankers have an incentive to commit fraud and lend out their depositors money. This is incorrect on a bitcoin standard because there is a shared ledger where addresses can actually be verified. If they choose to be dishonest they will be immediately ran and put out of business.
Why do you think full reserve won't exist?
Because lending will always allocate capital more productively
People do what is in their best interest.
lending your money to a bank that will be fractionally reserved and risk losing it isn't a very good allocation strategy.
We tried easy money allocation. It wasn't very productive at all.
The problem with easy money allocation is the lender of last resort, not the lending itself.
The chicken does not exist without the egg. The egg does not exist without the chicken.
The supply of bitcoin is audited and will not be able to be inflated because in such instance it becomes something different than bitcoin entirely.
Bitcoin is an idea. Its the idea of scarcity. Maybe you just don't agree with that ideas greatness?
People holding claims on bitcoin through banks is already something different from bitcoin entirely.
Your view of scarcity is challenged in this chapter:
https://github.com/libbitcoin/libbitcoin-system/wiki/Scarcity-Fallacy
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OK, what do you envision for the future of adoption ? Lightning? Fedimint? Fractional reserve banks?
I don't expect mass adoption. Holding bitcoin will become less attractive as the halvings become increasingly insignificant, block subsidy falls, and fees rise. Lightning could be a viable substitute for settled bitcoin, as well as other coins with similar properties, and metal coins. The other alternatives you mention entail lending, which is no substitute for holding one's own money.
https://github.com/libbitcoin/libbitcoin-system/wiki/Substitution-Principle
Thanks for the discussion. I still have a hard time seeing bitcoin do anything but accelerate over time.
What you say about halvings decreasing doesn't really make a lot of sense to me because the dollar denominated quantity that is made unavailable to purchase ath has increased historically.
I am biased though, so I am not surprised if I'm missing something
The man who works for the money that he invests spends it more productively and shrewdly than the man who receives easy money via loan.
It’s never going to be a matter of computing power. There’s already an unbelievable amount of hash power behind the network and it’s growing faster than ever.
It’ll be a matter of block space scarcity which limits the number of transactions that can be processed at a given time. If bitcoin hits mass adoption it will most likely have to scale to other technologies like Lightning and on chain will only be for life savings or huge banks/companies doing business.
