nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpq42unar3l565fwnsurucene0nmxhm0248pwprd6f6tvh6l6huh5aqkm5quk

Ok...draw up a plan for entering an occupied solar system.

Run it through the Moloch if you are so inclined.

Of course I'm making shit up.

Run the numbers, there is a string of coincidences that all add up to 0.02% probability it's a natural phenomenon.

You remember your high school probability calculations?

Or did you, like most of us, sleep through it?

Conditional probability +

Probability attenuation +

Hierarchical Classification +

Conjunction effect.

Probability drops multiplicatively, Each additional constraint "attenuates" (weakens) the overall likelihood.

It may still be natural, it's very low probability. But it's non-zero.

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

"0.02% probability it's a natural phenomenon"

As opposed to what? That's still a higher number than all the evidence we have for anything else.