But thanks

Ok, sorry for the late reply. Here it comes from a pretty partial view of things.

In the short term, the tariffs, due to their scope and level, will add a lot of cost to companies importing components, commodities, and even finished products to the US. That extra cost will be shared among those companies (lower margins, and profits) and consumers (higher prices). Both will have a secondary effect of lowering growth. Companies will either cut costs at home (layoffs) or have less cash flows (to re-invest in doing more things faster and better). Consumers will both, ask for higher wages (because cost of living goes up, even in the margin), and will be more careful with their purchases (lowering demand). Those laid off will be even more careful (living on savings and unemployment subsidies). In sum, lower growth and higher prices.

Some say that if the USD goes up by the same amount, the net effect is zero. The jury is out on that one given the scope and materiality of the tariffs. But the USD has, so far, remained at the same level or gone down against other currencies (worse!!).

Over time things will find an equilibrium. Idle Ford plants will make more cars inside the US, etc. The problem is that:

1- to build a plant takes a ton of money, certainty and time. And a falling market makes it hard to raise money. Certainty is in short supply given how uncertain the rules are (are we negotiating or settling new rules? can things change in 2026 or 2028?). And time is a bitch.

2- not everything can be done in the US. Examples: grow coffee, or chocolate, or avocados, or slippers at the prices people are used to.

Again, things will find an equilibrium over the next...10 years? But beware that a closed economy will be less competitive, less productive and overall less wealthy.

From my personal point of view, and it is personal, the best way to tackle this is through more sensible redistribution (eg. education, entrepreneurship) so we keep on winning on the sectors of the highest added value (tech, marketing, creative arts, even robotics and therefore a new kind of manufacturing).

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A different angle. The way the computed the tariffs is just bananas. It is not tariffs but a ratio of trade imbalance, where real tariffs (and non tariff barriers like onerous regulations and currency manipulations) are just but a variable among many. Super weird, unfair to the smallest and poorest countries getting to advance, and impossible to realize. Imagine that you are a Subway Sandwich shop owner and you go to your barber to cut your hair. To have a balanced trade you would demand that he buys $20 worth of your sandwiches. It turns the whole idea of specialization, division of labor and free movement of capital on its head.

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Well, that's it. I am sorry if it is neither very well thought out or clear, but hey! today has been a hell of a day. I hope it helps. Cheers!