i started using the Fediverse before it was called the Fediverse. back before Mastodon even existed, when there was just identica and diaspora.

i watched it go from a tiny place for fringe linux nerds, hackers, and artists, to a place for disgruintled corporate journalists and WokeScolds with 15 million daily users.

steady growth was minimal. The major growth happened from mass influxes. Usually from a negative facebook or twitter event, or some famous person talking about the fediverse.

Then 90% of those new people would drop off, and go back to the corporate BS, leaving behind a small increase. Those cycles happened over and over again until there were 10+ million daily users.

I see something very similar happening to nostr. It is very familiar and natural. But it seems like some people have a Silicon Valley VC funded growth from 2012 paradigm of what success it. Nostr is probably not going to happen like that. They dont have a realistic paradigm of how open source, community developed protocols grow over time.

So they keep getting disappointed because their paradigm is unrealistic, and the hype growth they keep telling themselves will happen is really probably not going to. Or to put it another way, 'go fast and break things' is a luxury mentality afforded by VC capital. Go slow and fix things is how real, lasting, open protocols that are worth something develop.

What will happen with people is pretty simple.

Some will leave quietly, some will leave loudly, making sure to dump their disappointment on everyone before they go. But some will just keep rolling, noting, memeing, and building, a peice at a time, until something really unique, robust, and reliable has formed.

stay humble, stack sats, post notes.