I've been wrong before, but my magical chart voodoo says the time has come. 🚀
Discussion
The amount of money that went into the ETFs the last two weeks, we should already be there. I wouldn’t bet against it.
When people who buy an ETF are in reality buying from a supply which already has been bought by the ETF supplier? So the impact is not immediately visible at the time of buying? Buy spot directly from an exchange would be impact more directly? Hope I see this wrong?
No, the firm has to go get the Bitcoin after someone buys it, or sell the Bitcoin when someone sells the ETF. They do not hold above or below their ETF issued shares. They settle every day. This is, of course, assuming they are doing it the way that was approved and they purport.
I believe you are correct. At least it should be that way.
However thenthis makes no sense with the current price reaction:
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds logged a total daily net inflow of $45.14 million on Tuesday. This marks the fund’s 11th consecutive day of inflows, which is the longest streak of positive flows since February.
BlackRock’s IBIT drew in $102.5 million, leading net inflows among bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday, according to data from SoSoValue. This led IBIT to become the largest spot bitcoin fund in terms of net asset value, with $19.68 billion — surpassing that of Grayscale’s GBTC.
Since converting into a spot bitcoin ETF, GBTC has been losing funds on most days, including yesterday, when it saw net outflows of over $105 million. As of Wednesday, GBTC has a net asset value of $19.65 billion.
Fidelity’s FBTC reported the second-largest net inflows of $34.35 million. At the same time, other funds from Ark Invest and 21Shares, Bitwise, Invesco and Galaxy Digital, Valkyrie, and WisdomTree saw single-digit gains on Wednesday.
Combined, the 11 spot bitcoin ETFs saw total net inflows of over $2 billion in the past 11 days, bringing the cumulative total net inflows since January to $13.73 billion.
Meanwhile, the price of bitcoin rose 0.73% in the past 24 hours to $68.126, according to The Block’s Bitcoin Price Page.
They are getting their coins somewhere from someone willing to sell at this price. Could be public miners, hedge funds selling for liquidity, OTC trades from whales, or lots of options. It certainly seems like we should be higher, but global markets are not univariate. This is why we hodl. Supply and demand math will eventually win out.
The U.S.-based spot bitcoin ETFs yesterday made it 15-consecutive sessions of net inflows, with the latest rush of money combing with a rally in the price of {{BTC}} to send BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Fund
I
IBIT
to more than $20 billion in assets under management for the first time.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the ETFs pulled in roughly $2.4 billion in fresh money over the past month. That would be the third-largest amount of net inflows across the entire ETF market.
“The ability to bounce back with renewed interest after a couple nasty selloffs is rare for hot sauce type strategies,” Balchunas said in a post on X. “[It] shows staying power.”
Following the initial euphoria for the launch of the spot ETFs, inflows slowed down significantly in April and even turned negative for several days, an occurrence which experts then said was very normal.
Since May 16, though, net inflows have averaged $140 million per day, according to data from Farside Investors., led by IBIT, which pulled in $1.1 billion over that period and continues to be the strongest out of the ten funds. IBIT as of yesterday held 291,563 bitcoins valued at $20.15 billion.
Price still under 100k$. Selling elsewhere should be insane to keep it nearly flat at such inflows....
Definitely at a massive sell wall. Not sure why, but take advantage of the extra time to stack. Won’t be here forever.
Some voice in me still distrust the whole ETF scene. Still thinks when these purchases were done just taking the spot bitcoin from the exchange in a conventional way it had done more effect on the price.............
There are billions in trading volume every day. These ETFs are a short term pittance compared to hedge funds moving in and out of positions. It’s going to take a while for the persistent purchasing to have its effects. There is still a lot of free float on the exchanges.
FYI
Interesting explanation:
I very much prefer this type of orderly and structured ascension.
It’s now time to
see you at 80k fren