I did a test on a site that played 3 samples of songs at various bit rates. I was able to select the lowest but the other two were difficult. I think I got 70% right. The difference between the top two rates were very difficult to discern. I used wired headphones in a quiet room and a good DAC.

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I think it may be more the compression type (what is compressed vs discarded) than the bitrates that are more difficult to discern?

Yes, compression is a factor. I think most people would be able to tell the difference in a song played over satellite radio (Sirius/XM) vs a CD. My wife noticed the difference and she is not a critical listener.