The Saints were a bit of a sweat, and the Browns sailed easily, which means most of your pool from last week is still alive. I would have switched to the Browns once Clayton Tune was starting, but I had used them, so I was on the Saints.

Let’s take a look at this week’s ownership:

The Cowboys are at 46 percent, but they’re the easy call if you have them. The disparity between them and everyone else is so wide, it would have to be a good deal higher than that to use them. How much higher? We can actually do the math just for fun.

The Cowboys are -1000 (average of the moneylines) which is about 91 percent (1000/1100) to win. The next closest team is the Bills at around -350 (78%) when you average the lines. That means the Cowboys have a nine percent chance to lose, and the Bills 22, per the market. Twenty-two divided by nine is 2.44. That’s your risk ratio.

In your hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, let’s say the Bills lose and Cowboys win. That knocks out six percent of your pool, leaving 94 alive. Let’s estimate another 14 would be expected to drop on other teams. So there’s 80 left and $1000 (the total buy-in) divided by 80 = $12.50. That’s your equity, should you have the Cowboys in a Cowboys win/Bills lose scenario.

So if we multiply the $12.50 by our risk ratio (2.44), we can figure out how much the break-even equity number is for the added risk of taking the Bills over the Cowboys.

That equals $30.50.

So how many people would need to remain for you to have $30.50 in equity? 1000/30.5 equals roughly 33 people. But remember there are 14 people expected to lose on other teams, so it’s really 47. So the break-even level where you could take the Bills (if you agree with the market odds) is 53 percent.

That’s actually lower than I would have expected, given the disparity in the moneylines, but it’s still higher than 46.

Of course, a lot of people (like me) have used the Cowboys and Bills, so for them this discussion is moot.

I’m leaning Seahawks off the blowout loss to the Ravens over the Bengals, and it’s nice that they’re much lower owned. Remember that week when I faded the Seahawks (who rolled) for the Browns who took five years off my life? Not only did I have a chance to win my pool then and there, but I’m the only one who has the Seahawks available this week as a result.

Of course, they could easily lose, but the moral of the story is the pot-odds fade doesn’t just give you an edge that week, but has the ancillary benefit of getting you out of sync with the rest of your pool, giving you opportunities down the line.