Week 2 Observations

Setting fantasy football lineups is a bit like the Squid Game Hopscotch wherein the players have to walk across a bridge, with each incremental step either on a firm glass panel that will support their weight, or a flimsy one they’ll break through and fall to their deaths.

Each step is individually 50/50 to get right, but the odds they navigate the entirety of the bridge are 1 in 2 ^ x, with x being the number of steps. If there were only eight steps, the odds of making it would be 1 in 512. To put that in perspective, consider if, for example, the Texans played the Eagles in Philadelphia, the odds the of the Texans winning outright would be something like 1 in 14,

Keep this in mind when you have eight coin-flip lineup calls. The odds you get them all correct are like crossing a (short) version of the bridge in Hopscotch. Chances are you’ll crash to your death at least a few times every Sunday. Accordingly, the feeling you’ve accidentally swallowed a large peach pit after you sat Dak Prescott for Brock Purdy (particularly after they changed the ruling on Purdy’s lone TD pass to a handoff) is virtually inevitable.

Maybe everyone else knows this already, but I’ve played fantasy football for almost 30 years, and part of me still expects to get nine out of 10 decisions right. I think it’s because I started playing in an easier era, where it was mostly TD-driven, and the league was so deep you didn’t have a lot of tough decisions. Whatever the reason, it’s dawning on me I’ll be tortured with regret every single week, there’s nothing I can do about it and really the only bankable joy in fantasy football is knowing others are in the same — and likely even worse — boats than me.

. . .

But I’ve buried the lede which is the Giants epic comeback. Down 20-0 at half, the Giants opened the season at a 60-0 deficit, the largest in NFL history. For six quarters, they couldn’t generate a drive or get a stop. I placed a futures bet on them to win the Super Bowl before the season, and it looked instead like they were the favorites to land the No. 1 overall pick.

But Danny Dimes played out of his mind in the second half, the Giants’ long drives finally bought the defense a rest, and in the fourth quarter, they finally got some stops. So much for my plan in two leagues to draft their defense (zero points) so I could use them against the Cardinals though.

The Giants offensive line played surprisingly well in the second half despite missing Andrew Thomas, but it’s bizarre how a team with Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams and Kayvon Thibodeaux can’t generate any rush aganst a mediocre offensive line. For three quarters, Josh Dobbs was slinging the ball to wide open receivers play after play, and James Conner ran like the guy on PCP in Last Boy Scout right before he pulled a gun and started shooting defenders. (Real Man Sports, indeed.)

The only lead lining in the comeback was Saquon Barkley turning his ankle after the Giants had more or less salted away the game-winning field-goal try. It was a run into the teeth of the defense to chew clock any back could have handled, but he happened to take it, and some lineman rolled on top of him. It wasn’t as bad as two years ago against the Cowboys when someone stepped on his ankle accidentally after the whistle had blown, but it’s was an unexpected boot to the testicles just when things were looking up.

And while I’m ecstatic the Giants won, would it have killed them to score the TD there and cover?

If the Giants defense doesn’t improve, they could be the carnival team this year. Dimes (321 pass yards, 2 TD, 9-59-1 on the ground) did almost all his damage in one half. Darren Waller (8-6-76-0) was involved on key third downs, Jalin Hyatt (2-2-89-0) caught two deep balls and Barkley (17-63-1, 7-6-29-1) scored on the ground and in the air. It might not seem like much, but remember it was almost entirely in one half.

Desmond Ridder is basically just a younger, healthier Marcus Mariota so far as I can tell.

Bijan Robinson (19-124-0, 5-4-48-0) again looked the part of a superstar running back while Tyler Allgeier (16-48-0) did not. Robinson even got one goal-line carry this week, but Allgeier saw one while I was watching too. The separation between the two players was obvious, though, and I have no regrets (yet) having paid up for Robinson in three leagues.

I have Kyle Pitts in one league, and he’s not startable right now.

AJ Dillon (15-55-0, 1-1-8-0) got a chance with Aaron Jones out and didn’t do much.

I don’t know what to make of Jordan Love yet, but he’s above a certain floor at least, and he’s playing with the league’s worst receiving corps right now. If Love turns out to be good, the Packers would have gone Favre-Rodgers-Love without a single year in the wilderness. Contrast that with teams like the Bears and Browns who spent decades there.

So much for the angle that the bizarre handling of the Damar Hamlin incident might affect the Bills. At least for this week, they were focused and prepared. Not that the Cowboys were a tough sweat in Survivor, either.

It’s hard to read much into blowouts, but the Bills gave James Cook (17-123-0, 4-4-36-0) all the important carries except the touchdowns. But that other role is split 50/50 between Latavius Murray (6-22-1, 2-2-9-0) and Damien Harris (7-33-1), and with Josh Allen also capable of goal-line work, the non-Cook RBs are unusable.

Josh Jacobs (9—2-0, 6-5-51-0) got totally stuffed, but he was Jimmy Garoppolo’s check-down on virtually every drive before the game got out of hand. Jacobs will catch a lot of balls this year if he stays healthy.

Joe Burrow had a better game than in Week 1, but that was a low bar to clear, and apparently he aggravated his calf injury. He and his receivers should have come at a discount during draft season, but they did not.

The Seahawks are involved in an uncanny number of strange games, and this was one. I’m glad DK Metcalf (6-6-75-0) was able to come back from his rib injury, but it sounds like the kind of thing that could linger.

Jared Goff snapped his near all-time record streak of passes without an interception in style — a pick six.

The Chargers were too soft to lay wood on the road against a hard Titans team, no matter the disparity in skill talent.

Looks like I’ll be fading Keenan Allen (10-8-111-2) all the way through his Hall of Fame induction. (I doubt he’ll make it unless the Chargers win something, but he might crack 1,000 catches.)

Why would an ostensibly contending team draft Quentin Johnston in the first round if they’re not planning to use him?

I have three shares of Chris Godwin (8-5-58-0) when I could have gotten Mike Evans (8-6-171-1) for cheaper.

I mocked Racchad White (17-73-1, 5-5-30-0) as one of this year’s Mike Davises, but then he broke a couple tackles for a touchdown on the very next play. Maybe Alexander Mattison is the real Davis.

The Chiefs-Jaguars game had a total of 51, by far the highest on the board, and I picked up and started kicker Brandon McManus in a league for that reason. Luckily he scored all the Jaguars points.

Patrick Mahomes targeted 11 different receivers in the first half, 12 in the game. Travis Kelce (9-4-26-1) didn’t seem all the way back yet, either.

I started Anthony Richardson over Kirk Cousins in a league and was aghast when I saw Cousins’ stat-line Friday morning. But then Richardson put up two rushing TDs in the first quarter, and I thought maybe it would turn out just fine. Until he got concussed and forced to leave the game. It would have been more annoying but (a) in my other Richardson league, I started Danny Dimes, and (b) Richardson still had the courtesy of getting you 18 points before leaving. Many quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, e.g,) do not.

Sean McVay made an epic decision to kick the FG down 10 on the game’s final play to cover the spread. A lesser coach would have thrown a failed Hail Mary in a futile attempt to cut the loss to three.

I made a Cam Akers/Kyren Williams ROS bet after Week 1 with Alan Seslowsky last week. Luckily it was only for $20. The Akers-back-in-the-doghouse-yet-again storyline would be more hilarious to me had I not drafted him in one league. Maybe the Ravens will trade for him.

I still don’t know who Puka Nacua (20-15-147-0) is, but 20 targets does the trick every time. Nacua has broken every record for targets and catches over the first two career games. You can see why Cooper Kupp is so valuable because that’s his role, and he’s actually good. Tutu Atwell (9-7-77-0) is getting his reps too.

It’s a relief when you’re facing Christian McCaffrey (20-116-1, 3-3-19-0), and this is his line.

There was a moment when the Jets seemed like they had a chance — Zach Wilson hit Garrett Wilson for a 68-yard TD, then showed his scrambling ability on a field-goal drive to close the half. But Wilson looked more like himself when the Jets were shut out in the second half, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets bring in a veteran before the season gets away from them.

I almost wanted to sit CeeDee Lamb against the Wilson-Jets because it’s a tough defense, and the Jets offense isn’t going to push you, but Lamb (13-11-143-0) is at the peak of his powers, and the Cowboys (especially without Brandin Cooks) really don’t have a No. 2.

The Team-Broncos game was very weird, but I was paying attention to it the least of the four late games.

Russell Wilson put up good numbers, thanks to the Hail Mary at the end, but there’s still something off about both him and Sean Payton. It seemed like they weren’t even trying to get the ball down the field to their playmakers when they were trailing late.

Brian Robinson (18-87-2, 3-2-42-0) is a bruiser, and they’re throwing him a couple passes early on too. Speaking of The Last Boy Scout scene, he played the real-life version of that last year and returned after only a few weeks.

If I had to describe the current iteration of the Patriots I’d say they’re an experiment in how many gun fights you can win with only a knife. There doesn’t seem to be any other purpose in fielding that particular roster.