As someone in tardfi (not affiliated with #tardstr) who handles distressed assets, I cannot tell you how much this feels like Q4 2019. Almost the exact same trajectory of failure creep amongst businesses. And this time it’s with 5x the rates. This is a common sentiment throughout the industry. Things are breaking behind the scenes.
Discussion
Could you elaborate and maybe give some interesting sources too? Would love to read more about this
Unfortunately I cannot say too much as my employer is a public company, but some high level stuff is 1) overbought inventory the past 18 months paid for with much higher freight costs that are never getting passed on 2) consumer purchases for non-essentials are way down 3) cheap money for over a decade has created horrible business practices and management teams that don’t actually know what they are doing, but could hide behind cheap money.
These problems, and many others, lead to more and more defaults coupled with a lack of capital in the market to paper over cash flow issues.
This is a much larger issue than just a post on Nostr, but that’s the 50,000 foot view.
so… credit bubble?
Big time
LFG!!
Worse.
The sheer amount of jobs coming online in universities that try to get donations from alumni etc. is eye watering.
The entire “university” industry can see what’s coming and that’s just this one industry.
During hiring interviews I noticed that many people are trying to flee before the boat sinks. All sort of cases, one company the high end product didn’t catch the market, company is closing. Another, in semiconductor market, customers have stockpiled and there is no demand now, causing cash flow issues.
Another company that built their revenue on subscription model. Customers are leaving because is non essential. Bankrupted.
And so it goes…
Yea indeed.
Ok ackman, what’s your next move?
Keep stackin
Obviously but give me the #tardfi move
Date and strike mf
I’m not a trader and have no idea when the bazooka comes back on. I’d be short as much as possible that’s not a hard asset if I had to do something.
I miss the degeneracy.
I only started really learning in the first 2/3 weeks of 2020, but even I heard about RR Q4 19 & was drawn in by the opportunity. I can draw a shit ton of parallels to then.
My trigger finger is super fucking itchy.
