Polymarket traders see 32% chance of no Fed rate cuts this year
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Traders on Polymarket now put the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in 2024 at 32%, compared to 7% in March. Traditional markets have scaled back expectations to two 25 basis points rate cuts from six in early January. Betters on blockchain-based betting site Polymarket now see a 32% chance of the Fed keeping the benchmark interest rate steady between 5.25% and 5.5% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, punters see a 27% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut. The hawkish shift in the could dampen the demand for risk assets, including . According to some analysts, (BTC) surge to record highs above $73,000 in the first quarter was primarily fueled by the anticipation of swift interest rate cuts. Hawkish pricing on Polymarket is consistent with traditional markets, where traders now see just two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2024 versus six in early January. Bank of America recently pushed out the timing of the first Fed rate cut to December from June, while Societe Generale said the central bank would not cut rates until 2025.
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