Subnostr

These are the kind of multiples I think about with #Bitcoin

Looking 10-20 years in the future as fiat collapses, these seem inevitable to me.

I don’t see volatility going away for 50+ years. Could easily swing millions in fiat terms in weeks/months in future depending on who is liquidating and how much and what crazy shit fiat CBDCs are doing by then.

Remember, we’ve never seen an absolutely scarce asset in human history, this is the first and only one we will ever have.

Demand will be perpetual once people realise this and see that Bitcoin can’t be killed no matter what the State does.

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Discussion

nobody 2y ago

never going to be a global transactor

BoomTown 2y ago

Does this account for absolute illiquidity of a majority of the coins? Either due to boat accidents or because as the price goes up for individual coins, the coins held in cold storage goes up in value, too. So it isn’t critical to spend those coins to achieve individual prosperity, maybe ever. Which then drives the price up even further…

This chart assumes all the coins are liquid, for a price (doesn’t it?)

StackSats.IO 2y ago

No mate, this is rudimentary assumptions of #Bitcoin eating global money.

It won’t be achieved linearly because of supply/demand. There’s gonna be spikes like people have never seen which will drive FOMO like you’ve never seen and the HODLers will HODL like you’ve never seen.

Most coins aren’t liquid, tranches will become liquid at varying prices depending on what plebs hold and have set as an exit. Entirely possible that by then there are giant fiat mops absorbing every sold coin on the market.

Game theory of Bitcoin price is difficult because we’ve never seen this dynamic before!

BoomTown 2y ago

I just thinking that if bitcoiners are incredibly hardcore, they might hold their coins even though someone of offering the entire global money supply for them all. A bitcoiner could just say “no thanks” and if 1M wholecoiners do that with 1 btc each then there are only 900T / (21M-1M-lost coins) … so the value assigned to each coin could be MUCH, MUCH higher than that table. 🔥🚀

StackSats.IO 2y ago

Yes. I’m working on something to incentivise just that.

Bitcoin has a whole economic system based on the Austrian school implicitly baked in - it doesn’t have a political system which I personally think is both inevitable and required because it won’t map on to the existing structure of nation states.

I see wholecoins passing down for generations - centuries.

Just need to work through the game theory of the structure