At this point I feel quite confident that the halving will be between Monday 22 April and Wednesday 24 April of 2024.

But theres actually no guarantee that the halving will ever occur. Who knows why?

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all the miners stop mining? 🤔

thats a possibility

I'll CPU mine it out just out of spite.

I'd put the 2024 halving likelihood

somewhere between Punxsutawney Phil still being relied upon for weather advice in 2024, and the sun coming up tomorrow.