So I lost 6 of my 12 entries in Week 3, and this is going to sound bad, but I’m relieved since all six were from the offshore sportsbook which has a really clunky interface where it’s hard to enter the picks, confirm the picks and see what you have with all 10. Four will be much more manageable, and they were only $10 each. Moreover, I’m still alive in my home pool (only 10 of 21 left for $2100) and the Seslowsky pool.

The teams I lost with were the Cowboys (4) and Jaguars (2). Had I not been such a homer, those Jaguars picks would have gone on the 49ers, but I am constitutionally incapable of picking against my own team in Survivor. ATS, yes, but Survivor, no, though not for the noble reason you might think.

The problem with going against your own team isn’t that you’re rooting for them to lose — that’s not ideal, but you can live with it if they in fact lose. The problem is if they win, and you get knocked out by your own team. Basically you sold your soul to Satan, and he still stiffed you. You betrayed yourself and got nothing.

Let’s take a look at Week 4.

The 49ers are the big favorites — basically 775/100 when you average the moneylines which comes out to 88.6 percent per the market. The Chiefs and Eagles are 385 and 347.5, respectively, or 79.4 and 77.7 percent.

That means the market has the Eagles with roughly twice the risk of losing (22.3%) as the Niners (11.4%.) The Chiefs are close to the Eagles at 20.6%.

In order for the Chiefs or Eagles to be the pick, your reward for taking them over the Niners would have to be nearly 2:1, and it’s not.

Even if 40 percent were on the Niners, in a $10-buy-in, 100-person pool, that would leave 60, plus say 10 more people on other teams, so 50.

But if the Chiefs or Eagles lost, that’s 20 people plus the other 10, leaving 70. And $1000/50 = $20, while $1000/70 = $14.3. So the reward doesn’t quite match the risk, assuming you agree with the market numbers, and assuming your pool more or less tracks the Officefootballpool.com chart above. But it’s not insanely far apart if you don’t agree.

I’ll talk to Seslowsky tomorrow on the pod, but I’m leaning 49ers in all my pools, but his (because we used them last week), in which case I’d pivot to the Chiefs probably. (The Eagles are good, but short week and facing a humiliated division rival that usually plays them tough.)

I also used the Chiefs in those other pools, so they’re not an option for me anyway.