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The only thing I am bullish on in regards to Bitcoin is its fiat-denominated price (which is a weird thing to say).

Old regime: retail perps set price → parabolic tops, −70% to −85% busts, halving-clock "3 years up / 1 year crash".

New regime (post-ETF): CME + ETFs + dealer gamma set price → longer, flatter upcycles, faster but shallower draw-downs (−30% to −55%), macro/liquidity > halving, mean reversion > parabolas.

We're already ≈31% below the ATH with constant stop-hunts and very little leverage.

Instead of the Bitcoin is "arbitrary data storage" movement, I would've liked to see changes that (1) harden fee predictability, (2) make privacy and self-custody defaults, and (3) blunt perimeter levers.

In other words, changes that keep Bitcoin useful as money.

However, these are exactly the changes that Bitcoin's developers aren't prioritizing.

Instead, we're letting arbitrary data compete with money on the base layer. For Medium-of-Exchange you need predictable fees. Underpriced junk data is a Denial-of-Service subsidy.

I was excited about these changes that improve Bitcoin as money, but then I started digging into what Bitcoin Core has been up to and at this point, I'm like "Just stop changing things. You're making everything worse." 😂

More context:

https://controlplanecapital.com/p/how-bitcoins-developers-are-attacking-2a5

it's me, real fake 1mo ago

> "Just stop changing things. You're making everything worse."

Bitcoin Core is not the Bitcoin Protocol. I think Core is probably "captured" like people suggest, but I'm no longer sure it matters. Maybe that means the PsyOp is working, but maybe it means I've just spent some years thinking about it and I'm no longer sweating it so much... I just know I want more implementations than Core.

> Instead of the Bitcoin is "arbitrary data storage" movement, I would've liked to see changes that (1) harden fee predictability, (2) make privacy and self-custody defaults, and (3) blunt perimeter levers.

> In other words, changes that keep Bitcoin useful as money.

You know what's useful to a person with significant bitcoin exposure? Assurances that even with low financial throughput there's transactions for miners (whoever and wherever they may be) to benefit from by including in new blocks.

> We're already ≈31% below the ATH with constant stop-hunts and very little leverage.

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