I see logic in that. I could also see enough people fed up with the hawkishness of rates and convert fiat to BTC to “short” the government system
Discussion
I think that was these past few weeks' rally. The volume we need to go back to ATH won't come back until bonds go back to really low yields.
What would really low yields be?
Don't get me wrong - to me, any yield is too low because bonds are shit and it would NEVER cross my mind to lend my money to the State mafia.
But I guess under 2%?
That seems like a good area to be considered low. Wonder how long it will take to get back there. My guess is 3-4 years
There are more factors though, like the halvening in March 2024, and the BIS regulation that allows central banks to have up to 2% of their reserves in BTC (and likely ETH), starting in January 2025.
2% of the world's bank reserves is 3-4 trillion dollars. Just with 2 of those, the price of BTC would shoot up to $100-150k. Plus all the institutional and retail money that will go behind... we may be looking at new ATHs an order of magnitude larger than last cycle.