contensious hard forks can lower the value or increase it.

If half the security hash power or half the user base goes to a different chain, for example, it is not that the coin is now worth half, it is that investors and market have less total confidence in both chains, so a price discovery period takes place.

Either the main chain that didn't change anything wins, they both "win" and recover price or the new fork wins.

Historically, forks from bitcoin have all suffered huge price loss. This has created a creature of excessive conservatism, like Dan.

To them, any change short of an immediate security threat to bitcoin, is bad. Even a small change that isolates future changes to those who want them ( he doesn't understand this. Its not a simple meme, like the phrase: hardest money on earth, so his brain shuts down)