Uneducated armchair economist here. It seems to me that one of the issues of economics is it very difficult to show actual cause and effect since it’s such a complicated system and you can’t run double blind studies. All that is to say, it seems like everyone is just making their best guess whatever school of thought they subscribe to and just because they agree doesn’t mean they are correct.
Discussion
Global tariff rates are documented on a map on Wikipedia. Go ahead and compare that to the wealth of countries.
I'll admit uncertainty in the sense that you might win the lottery. We can assign probability to uncertain events and I'd take a 10:1 bet against you winning the lottery all day every day.
I'd also get fat rich betting that tariffs will trash your economy over and over. The only reason I didn't drop that big bet is that Trump is flakier than the finest croissant and I'd get rekt if he changed his mind last minute. Why would I get rekt? Tariffs are so bad for the economy that just the looming threat suppresses markets, if he changed his mind markets would pump hard.
Snap shot of the top and bottom from that list;
0% - Aruba, Afghanistan, Angola, Albania, UAE, Hong Kong, Sudan
23% - Bermuda
20% - Cayman Islands
If it were as simple cause and effect all those countries at 0% should be well off and those at 20+ should not be. But it’s a complex system and there are more factors at play that simply the tariff rate.
That's a pretty solid cherry pick of the countries with high rates. Unless of course the person you are talking to knows the difference between a resort and the population.
Hong Kong and UAE are 2 of the wealthiest places on the planet.
As for the other 0s, you are capable of understanding that there can be multiple causes at play, right? That doesn't mean you can hand-wave negative effects it just means other factors might over power that specific negative effect. You would still be better off without that negative effect.
I literally just picked the top and bottom when they were ordered.
My point being, like you say, that there are other factors that have an effect.
Just because some poor countries have high tariffs doesn’t mean they are poor because of those tariffs and visa versa.
