Replying to Avatar Snapolino

After 2036 the Bitcoin block reward will no longer play a role, the only thing that counts then is vbyte/sat fees.

With that information on mind we can do a simple calculation:

300 EH/s currently that support the network to fight for the approx. 6.4BTC.

so 300 EH / 6.4 BTC == 46.875 EH/BTC

In 2036 assuming the same distribution (mining pools and so)

300 EH / 0.4 BTC == 750.0 EH/BTC

So mining now till 2036 is ultra profitable if you do not need to sell BTC and can keep all more than 0.4 BTC per block you mine.

If you are a miner and you have to sell more than (6.4 BTC - 0.4BTC=) 6 BTC it means your BTC holdings decrease over time and you are already mining at a loss in satoshi terms. (This 6 BTC include all HW, maintenance, defects, electricity, infra, people, salarys, insurance , new miners, new hardware, advancements, etc.).

Every halving will make it much more (2x ) difficult for you to keep up and keep a positive mining to satoshi balance...

So in 2024 this will even go lower, meaning your budget per block mined has a maximum of 2.8 BTC in total cost!

So in my view BTC mining will without increase in efficiency plato out after 2026 ... At this point Miners are in a bubble territory (in satoshi terms) and have to sell more than they get...

All this leave anything related to USD out... This is purely based on mining and keeping as many sats as possible. None of this big mining pools will be able to compete with private small miners that use completely free electricity where ever they get that.

Interesting calculations, thanks for taking the time. Large mining farms which already have near zero cost electricity by that time could still be at an advantage though, using solar / wind / hydroelectric could even sell excess electricity into the main networks and profit from both mining and creating power.

I will remain optimistic that it could help small miners maintain a larger share of total hashrate though.

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i disagree,

no big miner gets electricity for free, otherwise the power provider is at a loss no matter how you put it. Solar... who buys the pannels, cables, maintains it? same with all other you mentioned items.

Bitcoin is an abitrage to set a base fee globally on electricity.

Lets explain what i mean by that:

Country A has hydropower and sells 1kwh for 0.5c

Country B has nuclearpower and sells 1kwh for 0.2c

Country B will set the price global (the cheapest price) therefore will get every BTC miner. Country A will either stop with hydro, or has to reduce its price to 0.2 which means they are forced to get much more efficient. So all electricity prices will globally converge to a single global electricity price. When that is the case we then know how much 1 kwh/ is in satoshi terms.

Some country's that do NOT produce their own energy sufficiently enough will default (like switzerland who has a net negative and imports electricity).

You might ask why this will happen, it is because you can sent bitcoin globall and arbitrage the electricity price away in every country on every block (10min).

So what else does this lead to?

It will make it possible to set a fair price on every product on earth because every product on earth needs energy to produce.

- rice, seeding it has near 0 cost, rain lets it grow, so you have only the farming cost (energy used there)

- a machine with thousands of parts, will be very costly because so much energy was put into the product.

- cement, aluminium extremely expensive because huge ammounts of energy is used to produce them.

Additional benefits:

It makes useage of waste very very lucrative....

- Plastic waste can be converted via pyrolisis to gas and oil

So Bitcoin will first over the next 10-15 years arbitrage the electricity price in satoshi terms globally.

After that it will arbitrage every product to its true value in what it consumed in energy to produce