The future isn’t reality, by definition reality can only be known in the present.

If someone needs $20M bitcoin in 16 years to make their investment pay off, I’d argue against making this investment. I don’t think it’ll happen.

As it is, a $4M bitcoin in 16 years is an average annual rate of return just shy of 30%. That’s Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme territory. That’s way better than the vast majority of investment ever, but it does pale in comparison to early bitcoin.

From 2010 to now, bitcoin price has gone from about 10¢ to about $100,000, a 1 million time increase. That’s roughly an ARR of 137% over 16 years. This won’t be repeated the next 16 years.