TikTok is the canary in the China trade war coal mine.

If the Trump team is unable to secure a deal on the social media platform then the two parties remain at a stalemate.

The Chinese know how central TikTok is to a wide swath of Americans. If no deal is to be secured, as part of a much larger trade deal, then the Chinese will just burn it to the ground. Once that path is taken, the Chinese will blame the outcome on Trump.

I will also repeat that the Chinese side hasn’t even begun to play hardball with Trump. Once you see headlines about “export controls” on items beyond rare earths then you will know the game has been taken to the next level.