The earliest reasonable date for the U.S. government to begin purchasing Bitcoin for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would likely be in the second half of 2025, based on current policy developments and administrative timelines.
Key Points Supporting This Timeline:
Executive Order and Policy Framework (March 2025):
On March 6, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, initially capitalized with Bitcoin seized through criminal or civil forfeiture proceedings. The order also authorizes the Treasury and Commerce Secretaries to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional Bitcoin, provided these strategies do not increase costs for taxpayers.
The order mandates a 30-day accounting of existing government Bitcoin holdings (by April 5, 2025) and requires agencies to review their authority to transfer Bitcoin to the reserve. This suggests initial groundwork is being laid, but no direct purchases are yet authorized.
Policy Research and Feasibility Studies:
The executive order and related discussions indicate that a President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets will evaluate strategies for Bitcoin acquisition, with recommendations expected by July 2025. This timeline aligns with the policy research phase needed to finalize procurement methods and legal frameworks.
The process involves coordination between the Treasury, Commerce Department, and potentially Congress, which could delay implementation until a clear strategy is approved.
Legislative Proposals:
The BITCOIN Act of 2024, introduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis on July 31, 2024, proposes that the Treasury purchase 1 million Bitcoin over five years (approximately 200,000 BTC annually). While this bill has not yet gained traction, it suggests a structured acquisition plan that could begin after congressional approval, likely requiring months of debate and refinement.
The bill proposes funding through revaluing Federal Reserve gold holdings or redirecting Federal Reserve surplus funds, which would require legislative and regulatory alignment, further supporting a mid-2025 or later start.
Budget-Neutral Acquisition Strategies:
The executive order emphasizes budget neutrality, meaning no direct taxpayer funds would be used for purchases. Proposed methods include using profits from Federal Reserve operations, revaluing gold reserves, or accepting Bitcoin for taxes or tariffs. Developing and implementing these strategies will take time, likely pushing purchases to late 2025 or early 2026.
Historical precedent, such as gold reserve accumulation, shows that such strategies require careful planning to avoid market disruption or political backlash.
Market and Political Considerations:
Immediate large-scale purchases could spike Bitcoin’s price, creating market volatility and political criticism. The government is likely to adopt a gradual approach to avoid accusations of speculative investment or market manipulation.
Congressional approval may be needed for significant purchases, especially if they involve revaluing assets or redirecting funds, which could delay implementation until 2026 if opposition arises.
X Posts and Sentiment:
Posts on X reflect expectations of swift action, with some suggesting purchases could start as early as mid-2025 following policy finalization. However, these are speculative and not definitive evidence. For example, a post from March 2025 cites Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirming interest in a reserve, but no firm commitment to immediate purchases.
Other posts suggest a longer timeline, with purchases tied to legislative processes or strategic planning, aligning with the second half of 2025 or later.
Why Not Earlier?
Administrative Hurdles: The government must first complete an audit of existing holdings, establish custodial protocols, and finalize acquisition strategies, all of which are complex and time-consuming.
Legal and Congressional Oversight: Direct purchases or funding mechanisms may require congressional approval, especially if they involve significant sums or asset revaluation, which could face resistance.
Market Sensitivity: Sudden purchases could disrupt Bitcoin’s price, requiring a phased approach to minimize economic and political fallout.
Potential for Acceleration:
If the Treasury uses existing authorities, such as the Exchange Stabilization Fund, purchases could theoretically begin sooner (e.g., late Q2 2025) via an executive order bypassing Congress. However, this is less likely due to the emphasis on budget neutrality and the need for broader stakeholder buy-in.
Strong political will or market pressure from other nations accumulating Bitcoin could push the timeline forward, but this remains speculative.
Conclusion:
The second half of 2025 (July–December) is the earliest reasonable period for the U.S. government to begin purchasing Bitcoin for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, assuming policy research concludes by July 2025 and budget-neutral strategies are approved. Delays could push this to early 2026 if congressional approval or additional planning is required. This timeline balances administrative, legal, and market considerations while accounting for the government’s cautious approach to a volatile asset.