The setup is technical but the catalyst is narrative

The setup is there. Halving supply shock, ETF inflows, sovereign accumulation.

But what actually lights the fuse is when the narrative flips from "speculative asset" to "the only balance sheet that can't be debased."

That flip happens when enough CFOs, treasury managers, and family offices realize their "safe" bonds are melting at 5-7% real negative yield.

Price compression is volatility compression.

But volatility doesn't disappear. It transfers.

Right now it's in the streets, in the social contract, in the "study 16 years, go into debt, get replaced by AI" despair.

When liquidity comes - and it will, because that's the only play left - Bitcoin catches up violently to where gold already went.

The compression is the coil. The breakout is the release. We're not early to the math. We're early to the consensus.