“Circular bitcoin economies” are currently just an opportunity for forex arbitrage. As the input costs are one currency with the output value in another. Bitcoin miners must pay their electric bills in fiat.
A true circular bitcoin economy values energy inputs as bitcoin. As such, a metal miner or electricity provider, needs to evaluate their costs in bitcoin.
What are those actual costs? Todays world is just calculating an exchange rate. Where is the circular economy in that?
Can we not calculate the energy required to output a single block today, and assume that as input and 6.25+fees btc as the output, and calculate the energy required to perform tasks, and make assumptions about how much value individuals are providing in bitcoin terms?
My strategy is simple. I stack sats now so I can frontrun the transition to ∞/21M.
When others are scrambling to acquire ever more precious sats, I’ll be able to use my stack to purchase goods and services I need at a premium giving me a chance to jump to the front of the line. I’ll also be able to trade Bitcoin to my tribe at a heavy discount to help them manage the transition they aren’t yet prepared to accept.
If the transition happens too quickly, that strategy probably won’t work great. But I’m hopeful that Bitcoin will act as a pressure relief valve that will let people opt out gradually as the problems become obvious to them at different points in time. I hope that lets us avoid a sudden catastrophic hyperinflation event that causes everything to collapse suddenly.
Maybe someone will come up with an Eric Weinstein style gauge theoretic formula to help us calculate things before the transition happens, but I’m not sure how that would change my strategy.
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