1) It seems Monero breaks the Travel-Rule / AML perimeter.

- The FATF Travel Rule and national KYC/AML regimes require VASPs (exchanges) to know sender/receiver and screen flows.

- Monero breaks this at scale.

2) Large exchanges are forced to use chain-analytics services (TRM, Chainalysis, etc.) and they can't score XMR beyond crude heuristics.

3) Large exchanges need access to perimeter governance: banks, card networks, licenses, clouds, app stores, and analytics partners to stay compliant.

- For them, potential bad press (e.g. ransomware narratives) is bad risk/reward ratio. One DOJ press release can nuke your bank lines.

- Major exchanges delist privacy coins just before/after key license applications, banking renewals, or geographic expansions.

- For large exchanges, it is high compliance drag, low monetization.

- Regulators probably instructed large exchanges to delist Monero because they need them to derisk and keep tracking everything else.

- The remaining small exchanges can keep tracking Monero inflows/outflows. They are unlikely to delist it as well. Tier-2/3 venues still keep the leakage measurable and surveillable (KYC edges, withdrawal patterns, device/browser telemetry, fiat touchpoints, etc).

- If any of the small exchanges blow up, or lose banks, card networks, licenses, clouds, app stores, and analytics partners, it's much easier to stomach than Binance/Kraken/Coinbase becoming toxic.

- Removing Monero from the default rails also slows adoption.

4) Small exchanges are unlikely to be allowed to delist it.

- Shutting all doors would push flows fully P2P/offshore where telemetry is worse.

- Small exchanges will be left as a controlled-opposition valve. Leaving a sanctioned “privacy outlet” in a few fenced gardens reduces pressure for broader resistance. People think the option still exists, so they don’t escalate.

- Smaller exchanges have looser banking/processing (or crypto-in/crypto-out only) and earn high-margin fees from Monero users and OTC desks.

- They just want to make the privacy choice costly, slow, and niche.

5) Most likely case for the next ~2 years - keep Monero on niche venues but remove fiat pairs in US/EU/UK; crypto-only pairs remain; heavy geofencing; withdrawals throttled.

6) Signals if they decide to delist it from smaller exchanges:

- Fiat pair removals first, then full delists.

- Withdrawal min/max and delays tighten “for compliance”.

- Geofencing expansions (more countries blocked from Monero markets).

- App-store policy tweaks framed as anti-CSAM/AML (collateral damage to privacy wallets).