Subnostr

I was thinking about the bitcoin endgame. If money supply is expanding at 7% per year on average and results in 3% inflation, the. Eventually you’d expect bitcoin purchasing power to grow at about 4%. So, how much bitcoin will you need to retire someday? Well, how much income do you want per year? Multiply that by 25 (1 over 4%). If you want $1M income, you’d need $25M of bitcoin. That’s a huge retirement income and retirement usually comes after you’ve bought all the major things people buy…but it makes for nice round numbers.

This applies when bitcoin has come to steady state. I’m guessing that won’t happen even if bitcoin goes up 10x in price. But assuming it happens at 10x from now…that means $2.5M of bitcoin today could lead to a massive retirement income. If bitcoin could go up 100x, it would take $250,000 worth of bitcoin now to perhaps enjoy a retirement income higher than any annual income ever earned in fiat.

Eventually Bitcoin won’t always be the obvious best long term investment. Stocks should eventually regain their place as a better investment. But that might be 100x from now.

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Discussion

OgFOMK ArTS 1y ago

Take into consideration this:

Bitcoin will deflate by increasing buying power. If tomorrow there flipped a switch where 1 sat = 1USD that would make a 2.1 capped quadrillion supply. The M2 supply is less than that. Add into consideration that Lightning adds mSats making 1 sat =1000 mSats or a fixed supply of 2.1 quintillion! Our legacy dollars can not use half cents so they just add 100 pennies each time. With fungible and trackable cheap transactions the buying power will increase.

100,000 mSats or 100 SATs will be a salary for 1 Year equivalent today.

The largest obstacle is the dollar cannot be broken down further, except at the gas pumps, so the money printers front run price discovery by increasing supply and killing savings.

Dr. Bitcoin, MD 1y ago

Fiat money can infinitely divide, it just never has. The opposite happens all the time. Even in developed countries. I think France did it in the 60s where it too 10 francs before such and such a date to equal a franc after such and such a date.

I doubt 1 sat will even equal a dollar (in purchasing power of today terms). But sat penny parity I expect to see in my lifetime…

OgFOMK ArTS 1y ago

No one knows but intuitively that's what I keep coming up with.

The reason I say the dollar doesn't divide further is the same reason imperial measurement hasn't changed in United States construction. All the tools are deployed. The BITCOIN tools are already created with micro transactions that will buy more in the future as they already are now.

In 2019 I recognized that in reality there is the same amount of money in the world that there always has been. The difference is that Bitcoin helped me to see that:

1. Bitcoin doesn't exist so it is not in the Fiat money of "innovation".

2. The BITCOIN ledger does exist and it's a score card for everyone. The sooner you homestead, the better.

3. To produce this Bitcoin score it takes energy and it can be spent as it is freedom of speech and it is the right to protect property. Metaphorically as a 1st and 2nd amendment right that we have anyway regardless of the gubbermutt.

4. Bitcoin is work. It is backed by Karma which is a very real universal principal of cause and effect.

5. Bitcoin is a suture, a thread, of technology that works anyway because it is frictionless in that humans are responsible for all of their personal actions and those actions are proof of work. We've extracted a lot of our work in the machinations of the games introduced by Occultists who generation after generation have been taught that other humans are to be controlled.

6. Bitcoin opens the human mind in it's left and right brain capacity. This is from the GNU/Linux, FOSS, DIY punk and pioneer attitude of the humans who have sailed the seas for thousands of years. It's our choice whether we gain further momentum or we devolve. To the Bitcoin pleb this doesn't really matter as spiritually he is stronger than ever by tapping into the Genesis Block. This is the Generative principal.