Probability of successful outcome in Grayscale’s suit with the SEC? Market seems to think probability is increasing.

I genuinely wonder sometimes if the bitcoin ecosystem was ever meant to be caught up in the traditional financial system. Obviously good for number-go-up, but does it move us away from focus on self-custody and self-sovereignty the more wide-spread bitcoin becomes?

1. When does something really break?

assuming it is a combination of how high fed funds gets above X% for Y # of months.

(e.g.) 2 months above 6.25%

fwiw Most of us were wrong in underestimating how much they could raise rates before something really breaks.

2. Are pension funds hiding how much they are now behind the 8-ball with bonds and stocks down so much the last 14 months?

What are the possibilities of the ETFs/index fund bubble collapsing ? How long will it take to the average joe to understand it's all a fluss and opt out with bitcoin ?

A must listen Pod

Has bailins been used before in the west? And why is no-one talking about them anymore? It seems to me that rising of rates is something you would do before you intend to do bailins because more people will convert to cash in such a scenario. Its like a trap.

How much paper BTC does he think was bought in the last 2-3years by institutional investors that has vaporized. I’m talking any exposure to BTC, could be private equity that blew up or simply BTC that did not actually exist.

And a follow up of what percentage of that does he think will be repurchased as custodied (either self or via custodian) pure Bitcoin.

Thanks

I’m not a GBTC fan but have numerous friends and family that went the GBTC route with their 401ks. the issue fascinates me. Particularly how the SEC has approved a futures but not a spot…..dovetails slightly into the regulatory issues Caitlin is having with her bank in Wyoming. Regulators hating on the space.

Thanks for all your content Preston my wife and I enjoy your shows.

Can't wait.

ELI5 why people are selling 😁

Here is something I posted on an internal channel in June that we can discuss (I cant seem to post a screenshoot in Nostr, sorry):

Banks may be in more trouble than the rest of the markets think.

Most banks have been holding MBS on their balance sheets to generate yield. These securities probably yielding 2-3.5% (the more senior tranches) and have 7 year expected WALs. In rising rate environments, people don't re-fi nor move as much. This extends life of MBS. Also rates are at 6% + now. So these holdings have decreased in price- about 10%. If banks sell these holdings, they are at losses.

Many regional banks have also taken up venture lending, given the higher rates these lines of credit can command. I've seen 9-12% - imagine if you will a blockchain startup taking a loan and buying say, Avax or ETH heavily on their balance sheets because they are in that ecosystem. Not too crazy to imagine someone doing that. I just spoke to an entrepreneur in the NFT space that raised $1mm, and spent $700k on JPEGs just to get in the clubs. I imagine some of those venture loans might be in trouble.

View on taxing electricity usage for bitcoin mining? Could it possibly be a win for bitcoin because govt would view it as a source of revenue? Benefit greatest number of people, Even those who don’t acknowledge it’s value.

Why don't we have Bitcoin ETF's launching in other countries? Singapore? UK?

Your post is getting a lot of eyes on it.

Added to the https://member.cash/hot feed

How much BTC is left to sell from

Mt box and liquidation of assets of blown up centralised entities

What does contagion look like? Likely scenarios etc.

Great episode #[2]​ and #[1]​ 🤙