What happens when Saudi Arabia’s 80+ year old conventional oil production goes on decline? We “suddenly” lose ~1M bbls/day … the supply shock to global markets will be real. The oil industry will hustle to build capacity to compensate but meaningful replacement supply will take 3-5 years to come online. And it will be from more expensive sources (oil sands, extreme deep water, very tight shale oil, etc.).
Existing oil production (even that already on decline) will become much, much more valuable.
The pools seem to self replenish. There will be no oil shock.
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I disagree! We will (eventually) see … conventional reservoirs always go on ~10% decline … even the most prolific ones.
This has been the story for all of my lifetime.
