The exchanges hold 1.8mil coins, aka 9% of supply. The price is $44k

In May 2020, the coins on exchange peaked at 3.2 mil coins. The price was $9k

I’m gonna just do napkin math here and suggest that a 50% reduction in coins on exchange causes ~5x price increase.

So let’s say these new ETFs lead to half the coins available being purchased. That’s 900,000 coins. If the price is $220k at the end of that buying, and the buying is evenly weighted, the average price paid will be $132k per coin.

That’s $118.8 billion dollars of new demand.

That’s only 0.4% of the now 30T AUM that can newly access the best performing asset of the decade.

Anecdotally, my friend who worked at Fidelity crunched some numbers from his experience of clients asking about Bitcoin and their age and what sort of AUM those clients represented, and he came up with 1.5% of AUM has already been asking about Bitcoin for the past year.

I say all of this to suggest that Day 1 demand for these ETFs could drive us rapidly towards a new fair value of $220k+ before any FOMO or the halvening supply shock are factored in at all.

I’m starting to suspect that the rest of the 2021 bull run we were all surprised was cut short is going to play out this year (2024) separately and prior to the regularly scheduled 2025 bull run early next year.