Update of that Ukrainian map I showed a while back. I said Russia would overrun the city now in red and get up to that orange line by August. Once that happens they have fire control over the last major supply route on the southern line.

That also means Russia will collapse that entire region quickly and be on the southern pivot point to start siege of the last major city on the Dnipro. This will mean Russia will start making Ukraine a landlocked nation as they'll have land access opened up to Kherson and Odessa oblasts.