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What is my prediction, there is no strategic Bitcoin reserve, Bitcoin reaches new highs due to the conducive liquidity conditions created by the Trump administration (Loans strategic industries), the peak is around 140K, that's it.

Taxes keep going up one way or another (Inflation) and karen and john are getting poorer and poorer.

Nothing changes.

hh 1y ago

So you totally subscribe to the 210,000-block cycle view and disregard the notion of a "supercycle"?

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Discussion

Cyph3rp9nk 1y ago

I am a believer in the power law until proven otherwise.

BoomTown 1y ago

The power law was developed to counter the obvious and impactful implications of S2F … amazing how so many bitcoiners have anchored to the obviously bearish model.

Assumes basically no network effects of adoption. It is fucking stupid.

Cyph3rp9nk 1y ago

I suppose you understand that the s2f has been invalidated both statistically and empirically...

BoomTown 1y ago

The FTX psyop had to bring in Larry David, Tom Brady, Steph Curry, et al (and Sequoia for the tech finance community) to break the market’s psyche

Cyph3rp9nk 1y ago

You can sit back and wait to see what ridiculous prices the s2f is quoted and it has never been right, the model has been broken for years.

BoomTown 1y ago

Since FTX … agreed.

hh 1y ago

Interesting 👀

Marc Kat 1y ago

I just learned about this Power Law. It aligns with my hunches, but I don't know for sure. I like the way you put it, "until proven otherwise."

hh 1y ago

"All models are wrong, but some are useful"