Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 bps today. ECB is slated to do the same tomorrow. Hard to imagine the Fed doesn’t cut rates at least twice by the election. Fiat end game in play.
Discussion
powell is stuck. he won't touch rates until THEIR stats show the economy is broken, inflation down, and employment rate ticks up. That will likely be well past election.
Cutting rates would likely pump markets (stock / real estate) and this would be a political chess piece in the upcoming election (muh economy).
Since JPow is appointed by the current administration he owes favor to his appointers. Also, he probably wants a second terms, so he’d be acting in his own best interest too.
The western central banks also have been acting in concert. Another data point.
