On Bitcoin Adoption

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There's a significant divide in the Bitcoin community at present, revolving around the adoption narrative. How does Bitcoin achieve widespread adoption? What conditions must be met for it to be globally recognized as a reserve currency?

Two key narratives dominate the discourse. The first stems from venture capitalists (VCs), altcoin enthusiasts, and "Bitcoin moderates." Their argument posits that Bitcoin's path to mainstream adoption requires substantial marketing efforts. Although they differ in the extent to which this marketing involves altcoins, DeFi, NFTs, or ordinals, they fundamentally agree that Bitcoin requires promotion, and don't really care exactly what form this takes. According to this group, sufficient promotion will enable the average person to "understand" Bitcoin, paving the way for a sky high price (and maybe alt season!)

However, this narrative is flawed as it fails to cultivate genuine Bitcoin holders. Instead, it promotes a culture of reckless gambling. At best, people dabble, make losses, and hopefully learn a valuable lesson about speculative games. At worst, people become entrenched in gambling habits, fostering a community rife with rent-seekers and scammers. Unfortunately, the majority entering the 'crypto' space find themselves with thinner wallets, often swearing off the entire sector after being scammed or losing significant funds.

This first narrative gains traction primarily because it enhances the perceived importance of its proponents. If adoption depended on active promotion, then VCs, marketers, and "Bitcoin moderates" become the linchpins for Bitcoin's advancement. It's an appealing narrative as it confers them a sense of significance they don't possess. Indeed, the egos on some of these people show just how self-serving their narratives are.

By contrast, the second narrative stipulates that adoption necessitates an understanding of Bitcoin as sound money. Bitcoin adoption is thus seen as a journey demanding patience, persistence, and a deep understanding of its technology and economics. This path typically spans several years and cannot be comprehended through a brief podcast snippet. Long-term Bitcoin holders and staunch supporters often attest to the validity of this narrative.

Interestingly, even those initially involved with altcoins or scammy altcoins find that these ventures did little to aid their understanding of Bitcoin as money. Quite the opposite, these distractions often muddied the waters and made understanding Bitcoin that much harder.

For long-term Bitcoin holders, the path to understanding Bitcoin necessitated considerable intellectual effort, rigorous study, and even financial discomfort. A clear understanding of Bitcoin's status as sound money was born out of hard work, not marketing gimmicks.

In this second narrative, exposure to Bitcoin usually stems from financial hardship. Whether due to inflation, banking issues, or government actions, people turn to Bitcoin out of ideological belief or necessity. Consequently, Bitcoin adoption is less about a marketing blitz and more about disillusionment with the current system. As long as the existing financial infrastructure continues to fail people, we can anticipate Bitcoin's continued growth.

This perspective negates the need for 'professional' Bitcoin marketers or high-profile endorsements. The critical factor isn't the backing of Elon Musk or Snoop Dogg. Instead, it's about individuals recognizing the corrosive impact of inflation on their savings and seeking an alternative. Ordinals don't get people to hold Bitcoin long-term, a real understanding of money does.

Bitcoin adoption isn't a mere marketing exercise; it's a journey of understanding, borne out of necessity and disillusionment with the existing system.