Replying to Avatar CitizenPedro

There's 100T in bonds, 2T in Bitcoin and 20T in gold.

I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the next 5 years (or 10 years) we have 50T in bonds 20T in Bitcoin and 30T in gold.

Even if it's just a result of monetary premium re-focus, i.e bonds might be worth 100T in 2035 but in real purchasing power they're only worth 50T.

In other words there might not an actual be a huge capital shift but just the broader market refocusing attention/trust in harder assets. In other words, some people capital will just be left to evaporate.

This happened in the Weimar Republic. Bonds did evaporate but it took some years.

In the Weimar Republic, the bond market didn’t collapse all at once through mass selling. Instead, people continued to hold onto their marks and government bonds for a long time, trusting that stability would return. At first, people kept believing in bonds and marks — even through 10–20% inflation — hoping the situation was temporary. It wasn't until trust in the currency completely evaporated, after repeated devaluations and uncontrollable inflation, that the real value of those assets vanished. The destruction was gradual at first, then sudden, as confidence drained away and hard assets like gold and land absorbed the fleeing monetary premium.

Now, I don't think this will probably happen again in the same way, in such a huge collapse. Most likely we will have a soft reset, and a permanent Bitcoin integration into the current financial system, just bringing harder assets to the current system in many different ways.

#bitcoin #macro #economics

Derivatives 1 quadrillion.....

The flow towards #Bitcoin hasn't started by any measurement.

Just a few crazy people...

Look at the volatility of Gold during the Weimar.

That is what is awaiting for #Bitcoin.

And probably the moves are going to be even more scary 😨

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Absolutely. By the way, do you think there's going to be a suddenly moment like in late Weimar Republic hyperinflation? Or it's going to be more gradual, like a revolution that lasts 10 years, instead of just 2 years of monetary collapse.

Uhmmm.

It is one thing rambling some thoughts, but something else to awnser serious questions !

So this is just my opinion.....

I think it will be faster than the Weimar period and more hectic.

First this is going to a world wide event.

Second with the interconnected world information goes way faster, and WAY faster.

Once the trigger is pulled, and I have no clue what it will be or when it will happen, there will be no going back.

Wetter oil companies start demanding exclusive #Bitcoin, or one of the world powers, China, US, Russia, whatever is going to use their printing press to buy up #Bitcoin, it will create a shock.

No fiat system can ignore that or they risk running behind in the hyperinflation it will trigger for most fiat currencies.

Whatever the source there will be too much fiat going through a too small funnel towards #Bitcoin.

To be honest I'm m surprised Microstrategy can buy this much #Bitcoin without the price/market responding so timid.

That is just one rather small company scooping up some 2,5% of all #Bitcoin that will ever be in existence in a limited time..

Imagine this would happen in the physical gold market 😬

And that is not even hard capped..

So I think volatility will go crazy.

And there will be fallout:

Government confiscating all centralized coins, and probably also capital flow restrictions as far as they can control it.

All these things will only be more dry wood for the #Bitcoin fire raging.

Bank transfers offshoring money won't be possible, ever tried to take some gold bars on a plane ?, leaving #Bitcoin as a few remaining possibilities to escape with.

Who in such scenario is going to sell their #Bitcoin against what amount of fiat, what are you gonne do with that fiat ?

I simply can't imagine a organized transfer between these two systems.

Those in control will want to protect their own position and by that cause panic.

All those fiat flows can be made invisible they do so for decades. But #Bitcoin can't be transferred in volume without not being noticed.

Microsoft buying 10 THOUSAND #Bitcoin is already big, but peanuts compared to the big players.

Imagine several trying to buy 10 Thousands daily 🙄

But I have warned for more than 10 years this system will collapse and so far not much has happened so it is just a ramble. 🤗

Honestly there's a part of that believes this is highly possible. Simply because I can see the system is broken in so many ways. It honestly breaks my heart how we could get to this point and thus I feel deep inside that something is incredibly wrong and when something is incredibly wrong it usually has to disappear in an incredible (wrong) way too. That's why I feel there's a chance of it all blowing up like that...

The other part of me still believes the situation is very very different to Weimar or modern Argentina or Lebanon. (Regarding the Euro specifically)

If the Euro goes out with a bang I'll applaud it though. I find the whole Euro and a lot of the EU thing incredibly evil.

Half of my friends that I grew up with in Portugal are broke. Because they didn't adapt or learned how to play the game. And it's all people with incredible talent that could be having great lives.

And it's the same from people everywhere in the world I meet.

It's just evil... Fiat is just an evil system that creates evil people.

Here's to the collapse of fiat. :)