Stock Market Hits Record Highs Despite Failed Recession Predictors
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Despite the recent record highs in the stock market, two popular recession indicators, the yield curve and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, have failed to accurately predict economic downturns in recent years. The yield curve, which inverts when the yield on the 10-year note falls below the yield on the 2-year note, has historically been followed by recessions. However, the inverted yield curve is not very precise in predicting when recessions will start. Similarly, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which combines market and economic metrics, has also failed to forecast recessions in recent years. While these indicators have fallen short, the stock market has performed well and the economy remains strong.
According to a recent article from EMEA Tribune, stocks r...
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