Part 2

(This is just a collection of unstructured thoughts)

So I agree when you say something will break. It will take approx 12 months for this current market situation to break...But then again, one can argue that the bank are already blowing up.

Next will be commercial real estate (as you mentioned).

I, personally, do not think the layoff numbers will be like that of 2008 mainly because of the labor participation is low, the birth rate of what would be now-workers were low, and job openings have spiked. Even with record high salary, the labor participation is comparable to the 1980s (even with more women in the workforce). So due to lower birthrate in 90s (a going forward 2000s, and 2010s) human capital coupled with high mortality rate of working-age-adults due to COVID, it is going to be a problem for growth of a business firm unless US government opens doors for massive inflow of immigration (a hot topic in recent political campaigns). Hence, I do not think there will be massive layoffs as we saw in 2008 unless AI is implemented to replace some of these knowledge-based jobs (as we saw in the example of IBM)...But how else can you cause massive unemployment for inflation to dwindle down? Unfortunately, we will have no choice but to adopt AI and AI will eventually go mainstream to replace some of the missing human workers...