Based on my analysis of prior Fourth Turnings or long term debt cycles, usually extremism or semi-extremism tends to win. Polarization doesn’t continue forever; one side wins. Meanwhile, I monitor current social trends. The existing state of the Hamas/Israel debate shows how polarized it is. Prior to that, fiscal issues showed the polarization.

In the 1930s/1940s, progressivism won. The financial social state was expanded, but journalists faced direct attacks on their first amendment rights to cover what was going on, Japanese people were put into camps, and gold was a banned from ownership in the land of the free. The idea of fiscal central planning was at the forefront, and social central planning was put aside.

In the 2020s/2030s, I expect a national conservatism to likely win overall, but we will see. By this I mean similarly anti-media, and then like anti-LGBT or anti-certain groups, but with a strong pragmatic national economic focus. Stronger social conservatism but weaker fiscal control. I think that has the vibes in this next decade, but I keep watching.