Why is it that you change the subject and ascribe a position to me that I don't hold?
Boy, I see why you set up rigged bets for non-technical fools.
Discussion
I don’t think you understand the bet. One side gets 2 btc if bip 444 activated, the other side gets it if bip 444 does not activate, in a chain split each side gets 2 btc on their respective chain.
It literally wouldn't work the way you structured it. All 4 transactions have an OP_IF condition which means none of them are valid on the UASF chain, even if it was the highest chain. YOU don't know what the BIP does.