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"At the very least it's an inflation hedge but not for those who buy bitcoins that don't exist of course. "

yeah people "bullish" on bitcoin are not buying bitcoin. they are buying other stuff with no scarcity whatsoever. there is no cap on how much capital bs can soak up.

that is going to have very predictable consequences, when you couple it with survivorship bias. guaranteed people will learn the wrong lessons. the wisdom will be "you have to lever up on your bitcoin to make it!" and that it's a timing/skill issue if you go rekt.

"How did the devs drop the ball on that one?"

bitcoin is integrated into the traditional financial system. and that will undo everything good about it. this would not have happened if bitcoin was more suitable for p2p commerce especially black market use.

by not scaling the system _with_ privacy (actually they hard blocked both separately), the devs have condemned bitcoin to regulatory capture and massive debasement via paper bitcoin.

Leo Wandersleb 4mo ago 💬 1

People will learn the wrong lessons? How? Those with paper bitcoins - levered or not - will get rekt.

Devs didn't increase the block size because it's futile. It would centralize mining much faster than it would scale use. Scaling proposals on L2 are looking more and more promising but we need soft forks. L2 also improves privacy. Let's get covenants and both will improve.

Which privacy proposal was blocked unreasonably in your view?

And again, massive debasement mainly hurts holders of paper bitcoins. Right now you can buy bitcoins - real bitcoins - at the debased price. You're inviting OGs to sell real bitcoins at debased price. Invite people to buy instead! And let's expose the Wallstreet Ponzi!

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moonsettler 4mo ago 💬 1

"People will learn the wrong lessons? How? Those with paper bitcoins - levered or not - will get rekt."

no. not all of them. many will brag about their huge gains and pretend their play was obvious (in hindsight). meanwhile those that hold bitcoin in self custody will simply not keep up with real inflation because of this massive suppression (whether intentional or not) going on.

"And again, massive debasement mainly hurts holders of paper bitcoins. "

see, this is what people get completely wrong.

Leo Wandersleb 4mo ago 💬 1

But the dilution will only get worse if it's done systemic and thus people will get the real thing. It's not gold. You don't have to leave your house to get the real asset. For many it will click and the price will diverge accordingly. And it's our job to educate more people on the true value of Bitcoin. I'm glad you are the only "believer" who's "giving up" I know of but we can also track that to alert others that still want to fight.

"see, this is what people get completely wrong."

What do they get wrong? I think you see a conspiracy that can and will eventually get revealed and then it's game over for paper bitcoin.

moonsettler 4mo ago 💬 1

it's not necessarily a conspiracy, that's not my point. i think it likely is, considering where the capital is allocated in this world and what their interests are. if they take bitcoin seriously at all they are looking at ways to sabotage the fuck out of it.

the thing is masses buying paper "bitcoin" debase every bitcoin holder, because that's how price discovery works in a centralized setting completely detached from the underlying scarcity. and when the size of entities is large enough, you won't be able to "short squeeze" them. no you are not calling bs on JP Morgan by taking your corn into self custody.

moonsettler 4mo ago

i kept telling people why a decentralized low-trust market valuation that interacts with the scarcity on a daily basis is important to turn this whole awful dynamic around.

if free range bitcoin provides an arbitrage opportunity to walled garden "bitcoin" that would create a force to suck bitcoin out of regulated high-trust markets where the massive debasement takes place. but we don't have that defense. the forces work out in the opposite direction right now.

all valuation happens inside walled gardens and at bifurcation the free range bitcoin will trade at a discount because it has reduced utility compared to "clean" coins.