I'd place fake black swan near 100%. Real one not so much. The odds of the real thing are higher than say 50 years ago though. Greater globalization and widespread adoption of just in time practices changed that a lot.
I mean global effect obviously. Real black swans at the individual level happen to somebody every day, cancer diagnosis for example.
It’s not a black swan if it has a high probability. I think you’re right that the odds increase over time
The odds of a black swan are different than the odds of that black swan. Somebody will win the lottery, but you shouldn't buy a ticket.
Also I don't consider a manufactured event to be the real thing, even if the induced panic and reaction creates the same level of effect. That is why I split the hair initially. Odds of media declaring one and governments trying to capitalize are near 100%.
