It’s already risk off. Lol
Discussion
That the information asymmetry continues is truly astounding
For the USD system, in particular, it is hard to see a "soft landing"--even if they attempt to use bitcoin somehow for that
I think the USD system is in better shape than literally any other system, and so it’s certainly plausible that there is a global sovereign debt crises that make the dollar stronger relative to every other fiat as global institutions rush into the dollar safe haven.
I agree the USD system will eventually collapse as all government currencies do, likely to be reborn into something “new” but functionally just a devalued reiteration in a new wrapper. But this won’t happen until it happens to every other sovereign currency first.
Nobody, they rug (by freezing other countries assets) over and over again, the only thing US has going for it in this geopolitical environment is plenty of energy and some commodities (tho some is in the likes of Canada and Venezuela)
USTs are mafioso money
Again, I’m not necessarily disagreeing with you. But realize that all countries issue mafioso money. The money is just so shitty that nobody wants it.
Regardless of what you think about it, the market demand for dollars remains intact. There are trillions in dollar denominated debts that weren’t even issued by the United States.
USD will be the last fiat currency to hit 0 🤷♂️
Fair enough, but its not me saying this, its BRICS+
...and they have plenty of energy and commodities and don't want the dollar system as an asset or clearing mechanism
Sure, the USD may go to supernova strength before imploding, don't be too cute trying to time that!
BRICS+ has been saying they’re gonna make a currency since the GFC man. I’ll believe it when I see it. You have to run open capital accounts to have a reserve currency and China has repeatedly shown they’re unwilling to do this.
The BRICS currency may be useful in terms of settlement but foreigners will never save in it. Gold will provide the net settlement layer to the BRICS currency as opposed to a swift-like system, so people would rather just hold gold reserves.
BRICS at this point is nothing more than a buzzword
They don't have to "make a currency" let alone a reserve currency
They have resources and productive capacity, they don't "have to" do anything
But many countries HAVE throttled back buying USTs for years now... or did I just imagine that too?
Have you ever wondered how countries with such vast natural resources can be so relatively poor? The reason BRICS ain’t shit isn’t because they don’t have resources. It’s because their governance structures are dysfunctional garbage.
Nobody in their right mind invests in Brazilian debt, Indian Debt, Chinese debt, etc.
Despite the trend going downward, there’s a reason that United States debt is the collateral for the global banking system. It’s going to take more than what these countries are capable of, and when push comes to shove, their currencies will break down before the US’ because ultimately the United States has enough farmland and enough fossil fuel deposits to be fully self reliant. The same can’t be said for any of the BRICS countries outside of Russia.
My conclusion on "how countries with such vast natural resources can be so relatively poor" is that they have been intentionally pillaged by the IMF/etc (confessions of an economic hitman) and loaded up with USD debt... Hopefully, other countries follow El Salvador and don't wait around on the BRICS when Bitcoin is already here
They’ve known they’ve been getting pillaged for decades though. That’s why France originally started returning their dollars and repatriating their gold back in the 60s… which in part led to the Nixon Shock.
So decades they’ve known how the system operates, and yet, despite their strong commodity positioning, they’re still operating with the treasury security being their dominant FX reserve.
My question to you is why?
When you properly answer that question, it will help you understand why it’s unlikely that this “BRICS+” flavor of the month stuff is unlikely to materialize into anything substantial.
Bitcoin will find it’s way into central bank reserves. As will an ever increasing amount of gold. But other sovereign debt will not disrupt the dollar.