Every election I can remember, the more charismatic person won except the last one: Reagan over Carter/Mondale, Bush over Dukakis, Clinton over Bush/Dole, Bush over Gore/Kerry, Obama over McCain/Romney, Trump over Hillary. Only exception was Biden over Trump, and there were serious irregularities around it.

Forget politics, and just ask yourself if there's ever been a bigger gap in charisma/personability than in this election. Then consider the economy which just massively revised down its jobs report for the last year, with inflation crushing the ever-shrinking middle class.

The fundamentals are terrible for the democrats. The indicators (polls/betting markets) say otherwise, but in an era of so much manipulation and fraud, fundamentals > indicators IMO.