What needs to happen for Balajis to win his bet?

1 - Banks unable to cover deposits (at scale)

2 - Rush to exit the dollar (at county level)

3 - Bitcoin become the flight to safety

Let's quickly look at each.

1 - Banks unable to cover deposits:

This might already be the case...

Banks bought a lot of treasuries when their prices were high (low interest), and are now in big loss as prices are down (high interest).

2 - Rush to exit the US dollar at the country level.

US treasuries are held in quantities by other countries.

Once they see cracks appearing, will they start to allocate out of it?

That would flood the market. And when supply increases...

3 - Finally, you have to wonder, what will be the safe-heaven asset in such a case?

What if there is an option that was...

-Not control by any single entity

-Audible & Immutable

-Requires no permission to use

-Censorship resistant

-Bearer asset/ final settlement layer

Any candidates?

The 90 day deadline is probably the biggest hurdle to win the bet, obviously.

But as the say... gradually, then suddenly.

Could it be that sudden tho?

What's guaranteed is that each ~10min a new block will be added to the chain. Bitcoin