Imagine thinking that the game theory incentives to buy and hold Bitcoin DON'T apply to Blackrock
Discussion
You'll have no way of knowing how much BTC is held by Blackrock because you won't have access to their public keys, and you won't have enough fiat capital to margin call them.
I just laid out why Blackrock has no interest in playing by your set of rules, and so far I couldn't find a single counter argument.
Chainalysis goes both ways and those public addresses will be tracked.
But even if they aren't, you've still failed to address my key point - that the game theory incentivizes Blackrock to buy and hold sats just like it does for everyone else: people, corporations, and nations alike.
Also, you've failed to address why I would even care how much BTC BlackRock holds.
My sats are unaffected by Ponzis and shitcoins alike.
Your Sats aren’t affected if you hold your private keys.
The fiat price is affected.
If you live under a Bitcoin standard, you shouldn’t even care about any of this.
If you’re still hoping to convert your Sats to fiat, or other goods priced in fiat, I’d encourage you to study the physical gold markets (bearer asset) and the gold derivatives markets (paper gold).
The price is affected?
If price goes up my wealth goes up.
If price goes down my ability to stack more wealth goes up.
Explain to me why EITHER of these is undesirable
Your wealth cannot go up and down at the same time, however you measure it (fiat price, or purchasing power). 🤷♂️
I didn't say it would go up and down at the same time. Logic fail on your part.
I said it either goes up, and my net worth goes up now - or it goes down, allowing me to stack more sats at unrealistically affordable rates, and ensures my net worth goes up more in the future.
Either way I and other plebs benefit. So explain to me how either one of these is bad.
You still calculate your net worth in Fiat if “price” is your wealth metric.
Thus you assume it either always goes up, or goes down then up (higher than your average purchase price).
This means you are right under your set of circumstances in both cases if the goal is to have a Bitcoin price higher than your average fiat price.
But what happens if the fiat price goes down, and keeps going down?
Or goes down, then stays flat and doesn’t even follow monetary inflation and price inflation?
You do not address this, even though I understand you believe “Bitcoin game theory” will prevail…
Bro I've been hearing this argument since before Bitcoin broke $1.
It hasn't happened yet and you've offered no evidence or even a theory of how such a thing could even happen, so there's nothing for me to dispute here.
My initial point still is that Blackrock doesn’t play by your rules, and that whatever game theory you think exists on a Bitcoin Standard, does not apply under a Fiat Standard.
Regarding chain analysis « goes both way », please point me to the public adresses of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. It’s much older and much bigger than any existing BTC ETF so you shouldn’t have any problem finding them.
Lastly, I do not need to address your point, since mine is just the opposite. Only time will tell what will actually happen.
