Maybe this is my simple interpretation.

You have shared info you are nationality X. Twtr knows that outrage fuels engagement. Content Y allows for this to happen, and increase retention based on what others who are X have reacted previously.

Perverse incentives.

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Or even glanced at something once in trending without giving it much thought..

I haven't shared my nationality. But they sure have my IP. Maybe it's not war-fueling; maybe it is "just" engagement farming. Regardless, it's hideous.

IP, and phone number + country code, and preferred languages on your device, and languages you search in, and languages of notes you look at and translate (or not) etc.

Nationality/related interest seems trivially inferred.