Well, if someone doesn't publish a kind-10002 and instead publishes an inbox model thing, I can still secretly follow them using the gossip model (which may be by following them on one of their followers' relays)

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They must still have an outbox relay unless they really want to not get their message out in the world for all to see -- which is the default behavior for people who use Twitter and so on.

Someone might have a paid newsletter that is only delivered to private inboxes, each copy watermarked so they can determine if anybody leaked it and cancel that subscription.

That's a pretty good idea.