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Replying to Avatar Bill Cypher

When bitcoin was under 20k right after The FTX crash was the best time for you to take a bitcoin backed loan.

When bitcoin is within spitting distance of ATH in the 3rd green year in a row is the worst time to take a bitcoin backed loan. (3 green 1 red, red is traditionally ~ -80%)

Your odds of getting liquidated on a collateral that is down less than 5% from ATH are much higher than collateral that is down 80% from ATH already. (For sound collateral only, don't try this with shitcoins like ETH or USD)

TLDR, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful applies to getting bitcoin loans too.

So why is everyone hyping loans now? They get to confiscate your bitcoin in a liquidation next year.

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Phil 7mo ago

Just had this exact same thought this morning. Bear market is when you want to do a 50% LTV loan

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